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Analysis on the lag effect of temperature - sea ice concentration in key Arctic Straits

  • role： First author第一作者
  • Affiliation：

    Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Conservation of Ministry of Education, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

    The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, China

  • Email：huangjx@bjfu.edu.cn
  • Introduction：黄季夏，1985年生，男，副教授，研究方向为空间数据分析。E-mail: huangjx@bjfu.edu.cn
HUANG Jixia12,  
  • Affiliation：

    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

    State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, China

SUN Yuhan34,  
  • Affiliation：

    The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, China

WANG Li2,  
  • Affiliation：

    Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Conservation of Ministry of Education, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

CAO Yunfeng1,  
  • role： Corresponding author通信作者
  • Affiliation：

    The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, China

  • Email：yangls@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • Introduction：杨林生，1966年生，男，研究员，研究方向为世界地理与地缘环境分析。E-mail: yangls@igsnrr.ac.cn
YANG Linsheng2*

Resümee

In the context of global warming, the area and thickness of arctic sea ice is gradually decreasing, which provides the possibility for arctic navigation, promotes the strategic position of Arctic channel, and changes the Arctic geo-environmental pattern. The straits of the Arctic region serve as an important transportation hub for ‘Polar Silk Road’, and their changes in ice conditions directly affect the opening of the Arctic passage. This study takes the sea ice concentration in the northeast passage of the arctic region and the important straits on the northwest passage for nearly 35 years as the research object and adopts the method of the distributed lag nonlinear model. The effects of sea ice surface temperature exposure factors on sea ice concentration change in arctic strait are studied. Studying the threshold and lag effects of sea-ice surface temperature on sea-ice concentration changes in important arctic straits. The research results show that: (1) In addition to the Bering strait, the other 11 straits have a high temperature threshold for the influence of sea ice concentration changes, and their thresholds are concentrated around -10 °C; (2) The effect of high temperature on the change of sea ice concentration has a lag period of 0—3 months, while the lag period of low temperature is 0—4 months. (3) The 14 straits show different lag effects and spatial heterogeneity in the nonlinear lag model. Vilkitsky is the strait with the most severe influence of high temperature in the lag period, and the relative cumulative effect value is -3.34% (-5.6% — -1.1%); (4) On the whole, the lag period of the northeast passage is longer than that of the northwest passage, and the lag effect value of the northeast passage affected by temperature is larger than that of the northwest passage. In addition, high temperature has a more obvious impact on the change of relative sea ice in the high-latitude environment.

Schlüsselwort

arctic geo-environmental;Polar Silk Road;key straits;DLNM;lagged effect

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