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The aim of this paper is to offer a statistically sound method to make a precise account of the speed of land degradation and regeneration processes. Most common analyses of land degradation focus instead on the extent of degraded areas
rather than on the intensity of degradation processes. The study was implemented for the Potential Extent of Desertification in China (PEDC)
composed by arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions and refers to the period 2002 to 2012. The metrics were standard partial regression coefficients from stepwise regressions
fitted using Net Primary Productivity as the dependent variable
and year number and aridity as predictors. The results indicate
that: 1) the extension of degrading lands (292
896 km
2
or 9.12% of PEDC) overcomes the area that is recovering (194
560 km
2
or 6.06% of PEDC); and 2) the intensity of degrading trends is lower than that of increasing trends in three land cover types (grassland
desert and crops) and in two aridity levels (semi-arid and dry sub-humid). Such outcome might pinpoint restoration policies by the Chinese government
and document a possible case of hysteresis.
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