On the assumption that the air temperature will increase 1.5℃

precipitation will increase 5% and the distribution of vegetation won’t change

an improved energy use efficiency model and 1 km AVHRR-NDVI data are used to estimate the effect of climate change on terrestrial net primary productivity in China. The results show that net primary productivity will increase in most of China

but in south China it will derease slightly. The NPP average increases 6.2% in China totally. The distribution of increased value and relative increased percentage is different. The maximum increased percentage of NPP appeares in Tibet Plateau

but the maximum absolute value of NPP lies in the forest and the mimimum lies in desert region.