GONG Ning, NIU Zhenguo, QI Wei, et al. Driving forces of wetland change in China. [J]. Journal of Remote Sensing 20(2):172-183(2016) DOI: 10.11834/jrs.20164210.
The factors that influence China’s wetlands are greatly complicated because of global climate changes and rapid economic development. This study investigates the dynamic characteristics and evolution laws of the temporal and spatial distribution of wetlands in China
as well as the driving forces behind these changes. Considering the relevance with wetland change and data availability
we chose 12 impact factors as independent variables(average temperature
average humidity
accumulative precipitation
population
gross regional domestic product
agricultural production value
agricultural acreage
grain production
effective irrigation area
reservoir capacity
drainage area
and saline-alkali management area)
in which three were natural factors and nine were social economic factors. The wetland change driving mechanism from 1978 to 2008 was studied using Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) based on the wetland remote sense mapping in four years(1978
1990
2000
and 2008) and land use data in three years(1990
2000
and 2005). GWR is a local linear regression method that can effectively reflect the regional disparity of driving factors influencing wetlands and can present intuitive results. The main influencing factors of different types of wetlands vary. Inland wetlands were closely associated with average temperature
accumulative precipitation
and activities related to farming irrigation
whereas economic development and water infrastructure significantly influenced artificial wetlands. Coastal wetlands were closely associated with population and fishery industry. The main factors influencing a wetland changed with time
and obvious differences in the degree of influence over the space were observed. For inland wetlands
accumulative precipitation affected the northwest arid region from 1978 to 1990. The average temperature significantly positively correlated with inland wetlands in the north areas
where snow and permafrost were distributed from 1990 to 2000. Both of them can increase the wetland water supply to expand the wetlands area. The drainage areas on inland wetlands significantly influenced the southeast coastal area. Agricultural acreage
effective irrigation
and grain production significantly influenced the north
especially in three northeast provinces and the Inner Mongolia autonomous region. Due to these factors
inland wetlands sharply reduced because of drainage
reclamation
and increasing agricultural demand for water. Artificial wetlands are consistent with changes in economic development in China from 1978 to 2008. During this period
economic development moved from south to north and from east to west
and artificial wetlands increased accordingly in those areas. In the past 30 years
the reduction of coastal wetlands was mainly caused by fisheries development
tideland reclamation
oilfield development
infrastructure
and water conservancy facility construction. Among these factors
fishery production mainly affected Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces
tidal land reclamation affected Fujian and Guangdong provinces
and oil field development significantly affected the areas around the Bohai Sea. At the same time
the population growth rate was faster in coastal areas than in other regions
resulting in the conversion of wetlands into a large number of artificial facilities.The results of this study basically reflect the characteristic changes in China’s wetlands from 1978 to2008
which could provide helpful policy support for the management and rational utilization of wetlands on a national scale.