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Comparação e estudo de reinicialização dos sistemas de simulação de propagação de incêndios florestais FARSITE e Cell2Fire

  • role： First author第一作者
  • Affiliation：

    School of Internet of Things, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210000, China

  • Email：1022173213@njupt.edu.cn
  • Introduction：辛淇， 研究方向为林火蔓延模拟、时间序列异常检测。E-mail： 1022173213@njupt.edu.cn
XIN Qi1,  
  • Affiliation：

    School of Computer Science, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210000, China

YUAN Yuan2,  
  • Affiliation：

    School of Internet of Things, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210000, China

ZHOU Junhan1,  
  • Affiliation：

    Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

LI Ziyang3,  
  • role： Corresponding author通信作者
  • Affiliation：

    Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

  • Email：zhouzg@aircas.ac.cn
  • Introduction：周增光， 研究方向为时序数据分析。E-mail： zhouzg@aircas.ac.cn
ZHOU Zengguang3*

Resumo

A simulação da propagação de incêndios florestais baseada em dados de sensoriamento remoto envolve a obtenção de dados sobre combustíveis, relevo e pontos de incêndio por meio da tecnologia de sensoriamento remoto, combinando esses dados com modelos de simulação de propagação de incêndios florestais para prever a dinâmica de propagação dos incêndios. Isso tem grande importância para o trabalho de prevenção e combate a incêndios florestais. Neste artigo, foram utilizados dois simuladores de propagação de incêndios florestais, Cell2Fire e FARSITE, para simular dois incêndios florestais na prefeitura de Liangshan, na província de Sichuan, e na área de Nalijin, na Região Autônoma da Mongólia Interior, comparando a precisão dos dois simuladores. Além disso, para resolver o problema da baixa precisão na simulação contínua, foi proposta uma metodologia de reinicialização da área queimada baseada no índice espectral BAI e no crescimento regional, que é capaz de extrair automaticamente as áreas queimadas e reinicializar os simuladores de propagação de incêndios combinando dados de pontos de fogo fornecidos por satélite, melhorando assim a precisão da simulação contínua por vários dias. Os resultados experimentais mostram: (1) os resultados da simulação do FARSITE e do Cell2Fire são bastante semelhantes, na maioria dos casos a precisão do FARSITE é ligeiramente superior à do Cell2Fire; (2) em comparação com os métodos de simulação contínua e reinicialização usando VIIRS, a metodologia proposta de reinicialização das áreas queimadas pode melhorar o problema do acúmulo de erros em simulações de longa duração e a insuficiência da simulação devido à falta de pontos de fogo iniciais, sendo que os resultados das simulações do Cell2Fire e do FARSITE utilizando a metodologia de reinicialização das áreas queimadas apresentaram a maior precisão, indicando que para melhorar a precisão dos resultados, escolher o método de simulação adequado pode ser mais importante do que escolher o simulador.

Palavras-chave

FARSITE;Cell2Fire;VIIRS;incêndios florestais;simulação de incêndio;incêndio florestal de Liangshan em 7·5;incêndio florestal de Nalijin em 17·5

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