LI Zhong-lai1, CUI Heng-jian1, YANG Hua2, et al. SI Models and Piecewise SI Model on SARS Forecasting[J]. Journal of Remote Sensing, 2003,(5):345-349. DOI: 10.11834/jrs.20030502.
This paper introduces and sets up some kinds of nonlinear growth models
the SI(Susceptible and infective) model and piecewise SI model
for forecasting clinical diagnose cumulative SARS(Severe acute respiratory syndrome) cases is Beijing. The 95% confidence interval of the time change point on piecewise SI model is made well which includes April 21
22 and 23. It means some control policies in Beijing at the end of this April 24 played an important role for anti-spreading of SARS
after change of increase rate for SARS cases is quite significant.
关键词
严重急性呼吸综合症(SARS)SI模型分段SI模型转变点
Keywords
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS)susceptible and infective modelpiecewise susceptible and infective modelchange point