中亚地区植被对气候变化的响应机制初探
Response of vegetation to climate change in Central Asia with remote sensing and meteorological data
- 2022年26卷第11期 页码：2248-2267
纸质出版日期： 2022-11-07
DOI： 10.11834/jrs.20209216
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摘要
为了解气候变化对中亚干旱半干旱地区植被的潜在影响以及分析不同典型植被对气候因子的时间响应，应用2000年—2013年的MODIS-NDVI时间序列数据集与CHELSA气候再分析数据进行回归分析和时间序列相关分析，分别提取NDVI/降水/温度的空间格局及变化趋势、NDVI与降水/温度的线性相关关系与时间响应模式，再结合土地覆盖/利用类型与陆地生态分区数据了解典型植被以及不同生态分区NDVI对气候因子响应的相关性和差异性，进而帮助探讨中亚地区植被对气候变化的响应机制。研究结果表明：（1）中亚地区NDVI值普遍偏低，总体呈现出高海拔向低海拔减小趋势；降水空间分布总体呈东部到西部递减，且随着海拔降低降水量随之下降；温度由西部到东部递减，新疆则是由中部向外部递减。2000年—2013年间，中亚地区NDVI、降水与温度变化趋势存在显著地域差异。（2）NDVI与降水在大部分地区呈显著正相关关系，负相关的像元分布于中部、南部相对湿润的地区以及河流、湖泊沿岸；NDVI与温度在中亚东部、北部正相关关系显著，西部干旱与半干旱地区相关性较低，少部分为负相关。不同典型植被NDVI对降水和温度的相关性差异显著。（3）中亚大部分地区NDVI与降水之间存在32 d的滞后时长以及16—96 d不等的累积时长，NDVI对当期的温度相关性较高，存在16—48 d的累积时长；不同典型植被NDVI对降水的响应差异明显，对温度的响应除裸地外，其他植被类型对温度的时间响应基本一致。（4）不同生态分区NDVI对降水/温度的响应存在差异，森林区对降水的滞后时长与累积时长较长，高寒草甸区对降水滞后时长为96 d的像元占比为34.16%，对温度主要为16 d滞后时长和32 d累积时长。
Abstract
This study aims to understand the potential effects of climate change on vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas of Central Asia and analyze the temporal responses of different typical vegetation to climate factors. The MODIS-NDVI dataset and CHELSA climate data were used for regression analysis and time-series correlation analysis
which extracted the spatial pattern and variation trend of NDVI
precipitation and temperature in the period of 2000 to 2013. Meanwhile
joint land use/cover type and terrestrial ecoregion to analyze the correlations of NDVI to climate factors for different vegetation types and different ecoregions could help explore the mechanism of vegetation response to climate change in Central Asia. The results showed that: (1) The NDVI values of Central Asia were generally low and exhibited a decreasing trend from high altitude to low altitude. The spatial distribution of precipitation decreased from the east to the west. The spatial distribution of temperature decreased from the west to the east in Central Asia. From 2000 to 2013
the spatial variation trend of NDVI
precipitation and temperature were the significant spatial differences in Central Asia. (2) There was a significant positive correlation between NDVI and precipitation in most areas. The negative correlation pixels between NDVI and precipitation were mainly distributed in the relatively humid areas in central and southern Central Asia and along the rivers and lakes. Meanwhile
a positive correlation between NDVI and temperature was found in eastern and northern Central Asia. The low correlation between NDVI and temperature mainly distributed in the arid and semi-arid regions
only a few areas were showed negative correlations. In addition
the correlation of NDVI between precipitation and temperature was significant in different vegetation types. (3) There was a lag time of 32 days and a cumulative time of 16-96 days between NDVI and precipitation in most parts of Central Asia. The correlation coefficient between NDVI and temperature of the current period was relatively high and the high correlation coefficients of the cumulative time were 16-48 days. The response of NDVI of different typical vegetation to precipitation is different
and the response of NDVI to temperature is generally similar with other vegetation types except for bare land. (4) The responses of NDVI to precipitation/temperature were different in different ecoregions. Among them
the longest lag time and cumulation time of precipitation in the forest were 96d. There were 34.16% pixels of alpine meadow showed the 96d lag times for the correlation of NDVI response to precipitation
the lag time and cumulation time of NDVI response to temperature were 16 d and 32 d.
关键词
NDVI气候响应中亚时间序列相关分析时间响应干旱半干旱地区
Keywords
NDVIclimate responseCentral Asiatime-series correlation analysistemporal response mechanismarid and semi-arid areas
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