收稿：2025-09-11，
纸质出版：2026-04-07
移动端阅览
多年冻土长时序和季节性形变准确估计及其驱动因素分析对于评估活动层厚度变化和冻土退化具有重要的意义。在本文中，提出了一种联合InSAR、RobustSTL和地理探测器的多年冻土季节形变提取和驱动因素分析框架。首先，利用时序InSAR技术提取多年冻土地表的时序形变；在此基础上，利用RobustSTL算法实现多年冻土季节性形变提取，并分析多年冻土季节性形变的变化特征；最后，基于地理探测器探索多年冻土季节性形变的驱动因素变化。本研究收集了黄河源地区2017年—2021年的Sentinel-1数据进行应用。结果显示，黄河源地区表形变速率分布在-30—20 mm/a之间，季节性形变变化范围在2—30 mm之间变化。通过地理探测器分析发现，NDVI、MAGT和坡度是影响地表形变较为显著的因素。不同因子对形变的影响之间并非独立的关系，共同影响地表形变的分布。
Accurately estimating long-term and seasonal deformation in permafrost regions and analyzing its driving factors are of great importance for assessing changes in active layer thickness and permafrost degradation. This work proposes a framework integrating InSAR
RobustSTL
and geographical detectors for extracting the seasonal deformation of permafrost and analyzing its driving factors. First
time-series InSAR technology is utilized to derive surface deformation over permafrost areas. Subsequently
the RobustSTL algorithm is employed to extract seasonal deformation and analyze its variation characteristics. Finally
geographical detectors are applied to explore the driving factors behind the seasonal deformation of permafrost. Sentinel-1 data from 2017 to 2021 in the source region of the Yellow River were collected for this study. Experimental results demonstrate that the surface deformation rate in the Yellow River’s source region ranges from -30 mm/a to 20 mm/a
with seasonal deformation varying between 2 and 30 mm. Analysis using geographical detectors indicates that NDVI
MAGT
and slope are significant factors influencing surface deformation. The effects of different factors on deformation are not independent but instead interact to influence the distribution of surface deformation jointly.
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