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Published： 07 August 2023 ，
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朱玥，石玉胜，李正强.2023.2000年—2018年中国和印度的长期PM2.5污染暴露的疾病负担研究.遥感学报，27（8）： 1834-1843
Zhu Y，Shi Y S and Li Z Q. 2023. Disease burden assessment exposure to long-term PM2.5 pollution in China and India （2000—2018）. National Remote Sensing Bulletin， 27（8）：1834-1843
PM
2.5
作为空气污染物，对人体健康构成了潜在威胁。中国和印度是全球人口最多的两个发展中国家，PM
2.5
污染造成的疾病负担问题尤为严重。因此，本文基于长时间序列高分辨率（0.01°×0.01°）卫星反演的PM
2.5
浓度数据，分析了中国和印度19年（2000年—2018年）的PM
2.5
时空格局变化和人口暴露情况；基于综合暴露响应模型全面评估了两个国家因PM
2.5
长期暴露导致的6种疾病（急性下呼吸道感染、慢性阻塞性肺病、二型糖尿病、缺血性心脏病、肺癌和中风）的过早死亡人数。结果表明，中国PM
2.5
浓度的高值区集中在新疆、四川盆地、华北平原以及长江经济带等地区，年人口加权浓度总体呈减少趋势（2000年为50 μg∙m
-3
，2018年为40.8 μg∙m
-3
）；印度PM
2.5
浓度的高值区集中在北部地区，年人口加权浓度一直呈上升趋势（2000年为51.5 μg∙m
-3
，2018年为76.4 μg∙m
-3
）。对于中国而言，PM
2.5
暴露造成的过早死亡人数从2000年的90.8万人增长至2018年的137.8万人，增长了47万人；中风是导致过早死亡的主要疾病终端，占总死亡人数的45.9%（56.3万人）。印度PM
2.5
暴露造成的过早死亡人数从2000年的34.3万人增长至2018年的75万人，增长了40.7万人；缺血性心脏病和中风是导致过早死亡的主要疾病终端，分别占比39.9%（20.2万人）和25.5%（12.9万人）。研究结果有望为决策者和污染控制机构提供参考，有助于制定空气污染治理政策。
With the increasing frequency of air pollution incidents worldwide
many studies have focused on the disease burden from long-term exposure to PM
2.5
pollution. In China and India
the two most populous developing countries in the world
the disease burden attributable to PM
2.5
exposure are particularly serious. Therefore
these countries need to develop a multi-year and comprehensive dataset of PM
2.5
-related premature deaths to support their future air pollution prevention policies. However
only few studies have explored this topic over the past years. To fill this gap
this study analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of PM
2.5
concentrations and changes of population exposure to PM
2.5
in China and India over the past 19 years (2000—2018) using high-resolution (0.01°×0.01°) satellite data. Combined with the Integrated Exposure Response (IER) model
this study comprehensively assessed the premature deaths from six diseases due to long-term PM
2.5
exposure
including acute lower respiratory infection
(ALRI)
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
(COPD)
type 2 diabetes (DIA)
Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD)
lung cancer (LNC)
and stroke (STR).
Results show that those areas with high levels of PM
2.5
concentrations in China were concentrated in Xinjiang
Sichuan Basin
North China Plain
and the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The annual population-weighted PM
2.5
concentrations showed a decreasing trend (50 μg∙m
-3
in 2000 and 40.8 μg∙m
-3
in 2018). In India
high levels of PM
2.5
concentrations were concentrated in the north
including Punjab
Haryana
and Uttar Pradesh. The annual population-weighted PM
2.5
concentrations increased from 51.5 μg∙m
-3
in 2000 to 76.4 μg∙m
-3
in 2018. The number of premature deaths caused by PM
2.5
exposure in China increased by 34.1% from 908000 in 2000 to 1378000 in 2018
with the annual average premature deaths totaling 1228000. STR was the major contributor to total premature deaths in the country
accounting for 45.9% (563000) of all fatalities. In India
the number of premature deaths attributable to PM
2.5
increased rapidly from 343000 in 2000 to 750000 in 2018
with a net increase of 407000. The annual average premature deaths were 506000
the majority of which were attributed to IHD and STR
which accounted for 39.9% (202000) and 25.5% (129000) of all deaths
respectively. Moreover
DIA was responsible for 29000 (2.3%) and 30000 (6%) premature deaths in China and India
respectively
and therefore should not be ignored.
Overall
this study established a long-term series of high-resolution datasets on premature deaths due to PM
2.5
exposure in China and India. The number of premature deaths caused by air pollution remain high in China and India
both of which have high PM
2.5
concentrations and population density
thus necessitating stricter air pollution control policies. These results provide a reference for the formulation of air pollution policies in these countries. However
in estimating premature deaths due to PM
2.5
the baseline mortality rate did not consider the differences caused by the level of development and medical treatment within a country. Therefore
in a future study
the researchers will incorporate the sub-national baseline mortality rate when assessing premature deaths.
遥感PM2.5疾病负担过早死亡中国印度长时序
remote sensingPM2.5disease burdenpremature deathsChinaIndialong time series
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