收稿：2024-12-13，
纸质出版：2026-01-07
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城镇化是表征社会经济发展的重要特征之一，定量解析城镇化时空分异特征可为城镇化优化发展提供科学依据。为探究不同时期中国不同梯度下城镇化发展模式，本文基于长时序夜间灯光遥感数据，综合利用重心迁移、标准差椭圆法、全局Moran’s I指数和局部空间自相关等方法，从贡献率、增长速度、重心分布等角度定量分析了近30年来中国城市发展呈现的省会—地级—县级—乡镇等的梯度特征及其时空分异规律。结果表明：（1）从贡献率来看，20世纪90年代初期的地级城市贡献率最大，省会城市和乡镇贡献率持平，县级城市则最少；乡镇级城市贡献率在2000年后超过省会城市，在2004年左右超过地级城市，贡献率最高；省会城市在2010年后则成为夜间灯光贡献率最低的梯度；（2）从增长速度来看，1992年—2000年省会城市和部分地级城市领先于其他等级城市；2000年—2010年地级和部分县级城市逐渐成为核心，在华北、华东、华中和华南地区表现为中速增长及以上发展速度，但西北、西南以及东北地区由于发展程度较低，省会城市仍是4个梯度中发展最快的城市；2010年—2022年乡镇级城市成为主体，省会城市则几乎全部处于“缓慢—低速”的发展状态；（3）从重心分布来看，城镇化发展重心呈现梯度下移特征，由省会城市逐步向地级、县级直至乡镇级城市转移。1992年—2000年“高—高”型聚集区域主要集中在省会城市和沿海地级城市；2000年—2010年高值聚集区中县级城市占较大的比重；2010年—2022年乡镇地区异军突起形成新兴增长极，而部分省会城市出现“低—低”型聚集，标志着中国城镇化发展进入了以多中心、网络化为特征的新型发展阶段。
Urbanization is one of the key indicators of socioeconomic development
representing the transition from a rural to an urban society. It involves profound transformations in population distribution
economic structure
social organization
and land use patterns. A quantitative analysis of the spatiotemporal differentiation of urbanization can provide a scientific basis for optimizing its development. With advances in remote sensing technology
nighttime light data has emerged as an innovative research tool
offering a precise means of monitoring spatial disparities and the agglomeration patterns of economic activities during urbanization.
This paper utilizes long-term nighttime light remote sensing data
employing the total nighttime light value and the nighttime light growth difference index as proxy variables to assess urbanization levels. By integrating methods such as center-of-gravity migration
the standard deviation ellipse
the global Moran’s I index
and local spatial autocorrelation
the study quantitatively analyzes the gradient characteristics and spatiotemporal differentiation of urban development across provincial capitals
prefecture-level
county-level
and township-level areas in China over the past 30 years
focusing on contribution rate
growth rate
and center-of-gravity distribution.
Results indicate the following (1) Contribution rate: Between 1992 and 2022
the nationwide total nighttime light value maintained steady growth. In the early 1990s
prefecture-level cities exhibited the highest contribution rate
with provincial capitals and townships contributing equally
while county-level cities contributed the least. After 2000
township-level cities surpassed provincial capitals and outperformed prefecture-level cities around 2004
becoming the highest-contributing region. In 2007
county-level cities overtook provincial capitals
and by 2022
their contribution was comparable to that of prefecture-level cities; meanwhile
provincial capitals became the lowest-contributing tier after 2010. (2) Growth rate: From 1992 to 2000
provincial capitals and some prefecture-level cities led other urban tiers
with the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei
Yangtze River Delta
and Pearl River Delta regions being particularly prominent. Between 2000 and 2010
provincial capitals began to approach saturation
while prefecture-level and some county-level cities gradually emerged as the core; these areas in north
east
central
and south China exhibited medium or higher growth rates. However
in the northwest
southwest
and northeast—where development levels were lower—provincial capitals remained the fastest growing among the four tiers. From 2010 to 2022
township-level cities became predominant
while provincial capitals experienced predominantly “slow-to-low” growth
indicating a gradual shift in the center of urbanization toward townships. (3) Center-of-gravity distribution: From 1992 to 2022
China’s urbanization underwent significant changes. The center of urban development exhibited a gradient downward shift
progressively transferring from provincial capitals to prefecture-level
county-level
and finally township-level cities. This migration trajectory is highly consistent with the “core–periphery” theory
and the expanding area of the urbanization ellipse demonstrates a clear expansion effect. In terms of spatial correlation
“high–high” clusters have shown a trend of shifting from the eastern coastal areas toward the northwestern inland. The urbanization growth levels across different tiers exhibit a significantly positive spatial correlation
with Moran’s I values generally above zero but on a declining trend. From 1992 to 2000
“H-H” clusters were primarily concentrated in provincial capitals and coastal prefecture-level cities; from 2000 to 2010
county-level cities accounted for a larger share of the high-value clusters; and from 2010 to 2022
township areas emerged as new growth poles
while some provincial capitals formed “L-L” clusters with internal urbanization nearing saturation. These findings mark the entry of China’s urbanization into a new phase characterized by a multicentric and networked development pattern.
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